Orion provides products, pricing, and service to best help you and your clients. Each of the three is important, but only two of them (service and products) are components that we have direct control over. Pricing, based on interest rates, most often mentioned in the mainstream media, is based on supply and demand, and what is happening in the economy.

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Last week? Traders and investors digested a slightly hawkish interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, offset to an extent by positive sentiment on trade after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal with the United Kingdom. It was entirely expected that the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee kept the key federal funds rate unchanged. More importantly, the FOMC warned of a potential stagflation risk. "We think our policy rate is in a good place as we wait for further clarity on tariffs," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his press conference afterward.

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While the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, there was progress on trade. Trump said on Thursday that the U.S. had reached a "breakthrough" deal with the UK, which will provide increased access for billions of dollars of U.S. products. Trump also expressed optimism that China wanted to make a deal, ahead of talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and representatives from the Asian nation.

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Securities backed by home loans and U.S. Treasuries edged higher in price on Friday, which meant that interest rates dropped slightly. But the shallow bounce from Thursday's sharp slide still left yields near levels not seen in at least two weeks. The trading day started with anticipation ahead of the weekend's meeting between trade officials from the U.S. and China. The looming meeting prompted speculation about some reduction to the tariff rate on imports from China with President Trump chiming in, saying that an 80% tariff "seems right", but he also said that the decision will be up to Treasury Secretary Bessent, who will take part in the meeting.

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After last week’s meeting, leaving rates unchanged, there won’t be another meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee for several weeks. Orion’s AEs remind their brokers that, although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, the same factors that influence the Committee members also influence bond market traders and investors. There will be plenty of data to gauge the course of inflation, the job market, and the state of our economy between now and the next meeting, along the Trump’s tariff news. But through it all, Orion continues to offer the products and service meant to best help you help your clients.

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